Bad Parlay Odds on Football Picks

By Kurt Schumacher

Football betting in its various forms is a passion enjoyed by many Americans.  There are many ways everyday folks will bet on football games, some of the more common are: office pool picks, fantasy football contests, superbowl boards, straight up wagers, casual bets, and perhaps most popular - parlay tickets.  Parlay tickets (sometimes referred to as accumulator tickets in Europe) are what I want to focus this discussion about.

Living in Reno Nevada you will find somewhere on the ticket the payout odds. Now just about all tickets where the player picks more than two teams (sides or totals) the odds are greatly against you to cash that ticket in.  Yet the potentially lucrative payout still entices thousands of people every week to play the game and circle their best football picks on a given ticket – and usually they lose.  That said, if you’re going to play parlay tickets outside of Nevada it’s very important to know the language of the payout odds – what you don’t know could cost you. 

Let’s examine the payout language of a common 3 pick parlay. In Nevada, Europe, or playing at an offshore book, the odds on the ticket will typically read 6 to 1 for picking three (3) outcomes correctly.  If you’re playing the ticket from a corner bookie you will often find the odds read 6 for 1 for picking three outcomes correctly (sides or totals).  There is a subtle but very formidable difference in the language of the payout odds.  Wagering $100 dollars and correctly picking three out of three winners on a ticket that pays 6 to 1 would net the bettor $600 dollars.  That same wager ($100) on a ticket that pays 6 for 1 would net the bettor $500 dollars!  That’s about a 17% reduction in profits, and a deal breaker for knowledgeable players.

Consider this, that because of the juice, you have to win at least 52.5 percent of your wagers to break even (with straight up wagers). If you’re really good you will do well to win 53 to 63 percent out of a 100 wagers.  If you’re exceptionally good you might hit 66% of your wagers in a good year (that would be a very good year).  If you hit 63% of your picks out of a 100 playing all 3-team parlays that would likely be a winning season if you played in Europe, at an offshore book, or Nevada. However, if you hit the same 63% of your picks playing with the local corner bookie, who only paid out 6 for 1 odds – the pay-out would be 17% less – and a losing proposition. 

So the moral of this dissertation is to know the meaning of the language on your parlay tickets. Understand the significance of the “to” versus the “for” when you pick a football parlay to place your action on.  If the ticket odds say “for” – run.

To learn more about the pitfalls of football betting, and money management tips, please visit our website.

Kurt Schumacher

Editor – Football Forecasters